Emerging Markets Are Not Europe

We continue to see the Emerging market stocks get beat up as the global economy has cooled and the U.S. and European debt problems percolate every day. We believe that current headlines and TV talking heads are preventing investors from taking the long-term view on this important asset class. So… let’s step back and gain.. read more →

Deleveraging –> Baby Steps For Now!

Leveraging did not occur overnight, and the process of “deleveraging” government balance sheets will not happen overnight either. In the aftermath of 2008, the U.S. government recapitalized banks and invested in our auto companies to prevent a financial meltdown and massive layoffs in our manufacturing base. These investments have largely been paid back in full, with.. read more →

Are We There Yet?

Mohammed El-Arian, the Co-CIO of PIMCO Funds, often makes the analogy that investing in the post-Lehman world is like riding in car over a bumpy road to an unknown destination. After rebounding in 2009, stocks have posted healthy gains but have now hit another period of volatility and decline. Investors are like passengers in the back.. read more →

Deadlines, Debt Limits, and EARNINGS

Minnesota’s shutdown and the current negotiations in Washington, D.C. surrounding the debt ceiling have been capturing the national and market headlines in recent weeks. They highlight the potential risks of a “policy error” that could severely impact the markets. A potential default by the U.S. Treasury or even a delay in payments could send markets.. read more →

Corrections Are Normal, Bears Are Often Wrong

Unemployment is stubbornly high and the housing market is still a mess-we all know that. Despite these structural problems, the economy has emerged from the recession in 2008, and is growing again-just not as fast as any of us would like. Recent economic data shows the economy is slowing and the market seems to have corrected.. read more →

Hold In May

Virtually all of the S&P 500 companies have finished reporting 1st quarter earnings. The results were impressive, earnings grew 18% year-over-year, far exceeding analyst’s intial estimates. The rate of growth is moderating from the sharp rebounds we saw just coming out of the recession, but this is typical at this stage in the business cycle… read more →

Walls of Worry

Record home foreclosures, high unemployment, massive municipal defaults, unrest in Egypt, record federal budget deficits, European debt concerns, higher interest rates, and rising inflation in China and emerging markets. Is there enough for investors to worry about? Yes-and then some! There usually is plenty to worry about and it seems like there is always another market.. read more →

Poor Economy=Poor Stock Returns?-Not Necessarily

The recent mortgage foreclosure moratorium probably results in even more delays in cleaning up the millions of home foreclosures nationwide and means the return of a healthy real estate market is still years away. Jobless claims remain elevated, and unemployment seems like it will be stuck at around 10% for some time to come. Signs.. read more →

The “Wait and See” Economy

The dog days of summer are over, kids are going back to school, but the economy and the stock market still seem stuck, up just slightly since Memorial Day. Interest rates are low, inflation is lower, and stocks are cheap compared to historical averages. So what is holding things back? We seem to be stuck.. read more →

The Great False Choice

The debate is raging among policy makers, economists, and even among members of the Federal Reserve, about whether more stimulus is needed to boost the U.S. economy or whether policymakers should begin focusing on government debt reduction. Olivier Blanchard, chief economist at the IMF, recently wrote on “the great false choice-stimulus or austerity” in the.. read more →