The Great False Choice

The debate is raging among policy makers, economists, and even among members of the Federal Reserve, about whether more stimulus is needed to boost the U.S. economy or whether policymakers should begin focusing on government debt reduction. Olivier Blanchard, chief economist at the IMF, recently wrote on “the great false choice-stimulus or austerity” in the.. read more →

Five Things

We are in the middle of low volume summer trading in the stock market.After last quarter’s pullback, stocks are beginning to gradually move higher again. Recent economic news shows an economy that is still struggling with high unemployment and a sluggish housing market. But 2nd quarter earnings have been good and though corporations have been.. read more →

Moderating Growth, More Volatility

The recent correction of 10-15% in major stock market indexes was ignited by concerns over sovereign debt markets in Europe, but it is also a reflection of moderating growth rate in our economy. The rapid rebound from our recession lows is over, and we expect moderating economic and earnings growth in the months ahead. We.. read more →

The Long and Short of It

Last week the S&P 500 lost over 4% and is now down 12% from its April high. The sell-off has been focused on troubles in Europe, particularly in Greece, and Spain, as well as some of the structural and demographic challenges that the Euro Zone is facing. Instead of being fearful because of the recent.. read more →

Thursday’s Flash Crash and Europe

Last week was a hectic week in the stock market. On Thursday we witnessed a rollercoaster as stocks started strong, fell as fears increased that the sovereign debt crisis in Greece might spread to other areas of Europe. Shortly thereafter we saw the Dow fall almost 10% in just a fraction of an hour, and.. read more →

Earnings Season – So Far So Good

With the first week of earnings season complete, we are encouraged by the good reports. We expect this current trend to continue as earnings and revenue growth are up. We also like the fact that $51 billion of cash came off the sidelines this past week as investor optimism about the recovery is growing. We.. read more →

Transitioning into the “New Normal”

Paul McCulley, a managing director at PIMCO, coined the economic slogan “New Normal”. This term signifies a “changing of the guard” for consumers and businesses alike. From 1982 to 2007, the U.S. economy grew at an impressive 6-7% annual clip. This growth was aided by declining and low interest rates. low inflation, financial leverage, and.. read more →

Happy Anniversary!

A year ago today, on September 15, 2008, Lehman Brothers, one of the largest and oldest investment banks in the U.S. filed for bankruptcy, and set off a financial collapse that was felt across the globe. It seems like a long-time ago, but it was only one year, but what a year it was! Lets.. read more →

The Fading Recession

As we head through summer it appears the recession’s grip on the economy is beginning to loosen. Manufacturing and service sector activity has rebounded, bond and credit markets have improved and are functioning again, and leading economic indicators are pointing to a recovery in the months ahead. Last week we saw a surprise dip in.. read more →

Can This Last?

What a month! The Dow gained 725 points or 7.28% and the broader Russell 3000 index was up 7.78% for the month. We are breaking through very important psychological barriers that have not been breached since October and November of 2008! Can This Last?  We believe the markets are reacting to earnings reports, read more →