FEAR + FUNDAMENTALS = OPPORTUNITY?

The European debt crisis, Washington political gridlock, and slow “new normal” economic growth; as investors we all lived through these market events and realities in 2011. Unfortunately, none of these conditions are likely go to away any time soon. Throw in unrest in the Middle East and a potential nuclear showdown with Iran and you.. read more →

Hold In May

Virtually all of the S&P 500 companies have finished reporting 1st quarter earnings. The results were impressive, earnings grew 18% year-over-year, far exceeding analyst’s intial estimates. The rate of growth is moderating from the sharp rebounds we saw just coming out of the recession, but this is typical at this stage in the business cycle… read more →

Walls of Worry

Record home foreclosures, high unemployment, massive municipal defaults, unrest in Egypt, record federal budget deficits, European debt concerns, higher interest rates, and rising inflation in China and emerging markets. Is there enough for investors to worry about? Yes-and then some! There usually is plenty to worry about and it seems like there is always another market.. read more →

Moderating Growth, More Volatility

The recent correction of 10-15% in major stock market indexes was ignited by concerns over sovereign debt markets in Europe, but it is also a reflection of moderating growth rate in our economy. The rapid rebound from our recession lows is over, and we expect moderating economic and earnings growth in the months ahead. We.. read more →

The Long and Short of It

Last week the S&P 500 lost over 4% and is now down 12% from its April high. The sell-off has been focused on troubles in Europe, particularly in Greece, and Spain, as well as some of the structural and demographic challenges that the Euro Zone is facing. Instead of being fearful because of the recent.. read more →

Gold-Hedge or Investment?

Gold is often touted as an investment by ads on the television or radio, usually by companies that do little else but sell gold! Gold and other precious metals do have some value as a store of investment value and inflation hedge. But the value of gold as a long-term investment in your portfolio is.. read more →

Transitioning into the “New Normal”

Paul McCulley, a managing director at PIMCO, coined the economic slogan “New Normal”. This term signifies a “changing of the guard” for consumers and businesses alike. From 1982 to 2007, the U.S. economy grew at an impressive 6-7% annual clip. This growth was aided by declining and low interest rates. low inflation, financial leverage, and.. read more →

Inflation Watch

Consumer expectations for inflation have risen in June, causing some investors and policymakers to begin worrying about inflation again. Inflation expectations have risen to 3.1%, the highest level since last fall. We continue to think these inflation concerns are premature while we remain in the “Great Recession”. Most of the recent increase in prices has been due.. read more →

Low Inflation = Low Interest Rates

The high levels of recent government spending and resulting huge budget deficits have stirred the inflation hawks in recent months. The “talking head” investment advice on television has been touting inflation protection in the form of traditional inflation protecting investments such as TIPS bonds, Gold, Commodities, and even Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs). Inflation, as always,.. read more →